I’m here to tell you TrumpCare will fail. If it were to be enacted and implemented, it will do immense damage to the health care market and structure as it exists, and many working class people will reap the negative effects. To be fair, this may be a feature to its architects and not a bug. However, TrumpCare –at least, in its current nature – will not even become law as it contains too many flaws and exists in sort of purgatory realm where it is detested by the right for being too generous while being reviled on the left for being too stingy. In addition, it fails to neither meet many of the right’s goals nor include many of its anticipated provisions .
It doesn’t yet have a CBO score, as the agency is currently doing its analysis for release early next week, but there are other analyses that show it will cause millions to lose insurance coverage and raise costs for pretty much everyone except for the wealthy . Nor does the lack of an official CBO analysis seem to bother the GOP, as the party has discredited it for years. The working class and elderly are projected to shoulder the greatest impact , and a large portion of those negatively affected appear to be Trump voters.
The people who stand to lose the most under the Republican health plan tended to support Trump over Clinton. https://t.co/VF1ZOZy4Me
— NYT Politics (@nytpolitics) March 10, 2017
Republicans are rushing through this bill, and at a much, much faster rate than what was experienced with Obamacare. To be sure, it was one of their key promises for years to repeal Obamacare, but what Republicans are pushing forth now has not received any traction or praise from any stakeholder group . This is intriguing because Republicans have had nearly a decade to convalesce over their own better plan, but what seems to be happening is the shepherding of a fatally flawed, hastily written plan that has scarce support and no official budgetary analysis, and which will very likely fail to pass; or, if it does pass, will cause large negative effects that would do damage to the GOP’s approval and subsequent political agenda. To even some Republicans in Washington, this seems to be the plan.
Or is it?
One theory involves ulterior motives for Trumpcare’s likely failure. Republicans knew that developing and implementing a comprehensive health care plan was difficult, let alone dismantling an existing plan beforehand, and that their professed ideas were not likely to gain overwhelming support. The main goal of the Republican and/or conservative ideology involves tax reform and tax cuts, especially tax cuts to the wealthy , and this was something Paul Ryan and the GOP wanted to get to immediately . However, they boxed themselves in with constant talk of repealing and replacing Obamacare and would now need to commit to it for their base. So by designing a shoddy plan destined for failure, they could say they tried and move on, without wasting too much time and political capital on recreating the health care industry.
I think there is a bit of truth to this. Yet, I think that having spent the past several years lying about Obamacare and what their own health care reform would accomplish, they’ve come to believe those lies and that most people agree with them, only to discover most people don’t agree with them . But they’re already committed.
Besides, the goal of repealing Obamacare isn’t so much putting their own purportedly better policy in place as it is securing lower taxes ( in the hundreds of billions of dollars ) for high income households, with incidental indifference to the poor, working class, and middle class. Thus, I think in their quest to pass an indirect tax cut for the rich, Republicans attached it to things that most people actually want to keep and improve upon, especially juxtaposed to the comparably worse GOP plan for health care.
And it will fail, so let’s not get too worried about Trumpcare specifically. What is instructive out of this ordeal, though, is that it gives us some key insight into the motives and ambitions of what Republicans aim to do regarding health care, their overall priorities, and who stands to benefit or lose .